Is Penn State game most important of Lincoln Riley's career?

The face of every college football program is the head coach. In no other sport in America is the perception of the man in charge more important. How a program's head coach is perceived is a barometer of that program's health and that's not necessarily great news for USC head coach Lincoln Riley.

Everyone knows that the bar at USC is as high as it is at any football program in America. USC measures itself by national titles, which is a standard few others in the sport can realistically strive for.

That was the expectation when Riley was poached away from Oklahoma nearly three years ago, to compete at the highest levels of the sport. However, there's a glaring issue with that line of thinking.

Riley's teams have never played for a National Title in his coaching career. At Oklahoma, he did begin his head coaching career with four consecutive Big 12 titles but in each of those seasons, he lost at least two games and when he got the Sooners to the College Football Playoff (2017-19) he went 0-3 causing many to believe he isn't ready to compete with the elite programs of the sport.

The results during his time in Los Angeles have been even less impressive. He's yet to win a conference title with the Trojans and last year, his team went just 8-5 despite having former Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams running the show at quarterback.

As a result, Riley's perception as an elite coach has taken a hit. So too has the perception of USC as a national contender.

In fact, after last week's loss at Minnesota, many are laughing at the Trojans and saying that life in the Big Ten is going to be too much for Riley's program to handle given the physicality of the league. If USC can't even match the Golden Gophers' style of play, how are we expected to believe Riley will ever get the Trojans to the level of Ohio State, Penn State, or Michigan on a consistent basis? That's the question that most people are asking as the No. 4 Nittany Lions head into the Coliseum today.

There's no doubt that USC is trending in the wrong direction over the past calendar year and that's why Riley is being singled out as one of the most disappointing coaches in the game. After all, he's just 5-7 in his last 12 games, which is a season's worth of action.

Additionally, Riley is just 3-8 in games against ranked teams during his USC tenure. That includes a 0-2 mark against top-10 opponents.

That brings us to today's meeting with Penn State. Flying across the country to take on the Trojans, the No. 4 Nittany Lions are undefeated on the season and have positioned themselves as an early favorite to be in the College Football Playoff.

Virtually everyone in America outside of Southern California believes that Penn State will waltz into L.A. and handle the Trojans with relative ease. If that happens, USC will be almost certainly eliminated from any hope of making it to the playoff given that they will be just 3-3 on the season. That would be another mark against Riley as a head coach.

A loss would reinforce the notion that Riley can't build a program that is tough and physical enough to play in the Big Ten. It would also add fuel to the fire of those who suggest that he is not one of the game's elite coaches, a narrative that has been growing since this summer when ESPN college football analyst Paul Finebaum started firing shots at Riley.

However, should Riley find a way to lead his team to a win, it would open up a world of possibilities for USC. The Trojans would be back in the Big Ten championship race with a very manageable schedule remaining. What's more, they would move to 2-2 in Big Ten play and sit within striking distance of whoever leads the conference race after today.

More importantly, though, it would prove that Riley can beat the truly elite teams in the nation as USC's head coach. Beating Penn State would show that Riley may in fact be making progress toward building something real in L.A. That's what USC fans want and need to be able to say about their head coach.

Technically, by virtue of playing in three National Semifinal games in his career, Riley has appeared in games with higher stakes than the one he'll coach in today. But this game against Penn State feels like a crossroads moment for his tenure at USC.

Lose this game, especially in blowout fashion, and almost everyone will start to look at Riley as a coach who isn't ever going to build a true national contender at Southern California. But if Riley can pull off the upset, he'll start to turn the tide and change the perception about what his program is and who he is as a head coach.

So far, the arrow has been pointing down for Riley since he arrived from Oklahoma. But sometimes, all it takes to change your trajectory is one big win. Riley has a golden opportunity to do that today and that's why this could be the biggest regular-season game of his career.