Week 4 picks for important Big Ten matchup

USC is set for its first scheduled night game of the season as the Trojans host Michigan State in what’s being billed as the unofficial “Battle for Troy.” Both teams come into the matchup unbeaten at 3-0. Editor Gabriel Esparza and contributor Nicholas Burmood share their predictions for the clash.

Nicholas Burmood, contributor

I feel really good about what USC has accomplished through the first three weeks of the season. Jayden Maiava is proving to be one of the best quarterbacks in the country, currently leading the Big Ten in passing yards while protecting the football. More importantly, he’s shown poise and consistency.

Defensively, while not flawless, and no unit ever is, the Trojans have made huge strides. The pass rush and run defense continue to improve, and timely interceptions from the secondary have allowed the group to gain confidence and momentum.

This matchup with Michigan State represents a pivotal moment in USC’s 2025 campaign. A massive showdown with Illinois looms next week, but it only carries weight if the Trojans get through the first four games unbeaten. They’re 75% of the way there, with a true night game at the Coliseum setting the stage for Week Four.

Michigan State is a much tougher opponent than USC’s first three challengers. Jonathan Smith, who gave USC plenty of battles during his Oregon State days, will have his Spartans prepared. Lincoln Riley and his staff will need to match that energy, as a slow start could open the door for an upset. Injuries have hit Michigan State hard, though Riley insists that hasn’t affected the Trojans’ preparation.

Ultimately, I believe USC has been too efficient on offense and opportunistic on defense to stumble here. The Trojans have controlled every game so far with key stops, takeaways, and smart execution. I expect that trend to continue. USC will build on last week’s wire-to-wire win over Purdue and head into Illinois exactly how they want: undefeated.

Prediction: USC 38, Michigan State 21

Gabriel Esparza, editor

The spread for the USC game against Michigan State is similar to what it was against Purdue. While the Trojans were not able to cover against the Boilermakers, it is being recognized that penalties and a little bit of fortune for Purdue allowed the Boilermakers to keep the score closer than what was seen on the field.

With that in mind, the Spartans could be considered slightly better than the Boilermakers. It must be noted, though, that Michigan State has struggled to fully put Youngstown away and won a close one in a high-scoring affair against an underwhelming Boston College team.

Considering how easily the Eagles were able to move the ball on the Spartans, it is safe to say Jayden Maiava, Ja'Kobi Lane, and Makai Lemon will have a field day.

The USC defense is significantly better, particularly in the pass rush, to make life difficult for Aidan Chiles on his return to California.

Prediction USC 45, Michigan State 17