What USC football team must do today to beat Michigan on the road

For the first time since 1958, USC will play at Michigan Stadium today. It is one of the games of the year in the Big Ten as two of the most storied programs in college football meet as conference foes for the first time.

It is fascinating how the perception of these two teams has changed in just four weeks. Prior to the season, Michigan was ranked in the top ten and the defending National Champions were considered College Football Playoff contenders.

Meanwhile, USC started the year ranked only 23rd nationally. What's more, almost no one gave the Trojans a shot at competing for the Big Ten championship. much less a playoff spot.

Now, though, those roles have reversed. The Wolverines are headed south after looking unimpressive through three games. Ranked just 18th in the nation, they appear to be a team that is a long way from being a Big Ten contender.

Meanwhile, USC is a trendy playoff pick after an impressive win over No. 13 LSU to open the season and a dominant shutout of Utah State in week two. Now, the Trojans are the team with the expectations as this game arrives.

Today, we'll find out if the Wolverines have the fight of a champion in them. With their backs against the wall and their season's hopes already on the line just four games into the schedule, can they rally around their new starting quarterback, Alex Orji, and prove that they still deserve to be in the playoff discussion?

Or, will USC prove to the country that their win over LSU was not just a flash in the pan? Will the Trojans march into one of the toughest places to play in the nation and continue their meteoric rise this season?

Of course, Trojan fans are hoping for the latter of the two scenarios to play out this afternoon. For that to happen, though, here's what head coach Lincoln Riley's team must do in "The Big House".

USC must stop the run above all else

All offseason and through two games of the regular season, the talk about the rebuilt USC defense has centered on whether or not the Trojans will be able to stop the run. Through two games, the Trojans rank 33rd nationally in run defense by giving up only 100.0 yards per game.

That aspect of the defense will be tested in a big way, though, this afternoon. That's because Michigan is going to try to pound the ball down the Trojans' throat in order to protect Orji, who has thrown only seven career passes as a collegiate.

Thus far, the Michigan ground game has not been elite, as it was a year ago, but it has been solid. Putting up 176.3 yards per game on the ground through three games, Michigan ranks 50th nationally in rushing offense.

What's more, the Wolverines are averaging 33.7 rushes per game compared to just 26.0 passes. Now, we have to suspect that they will be even more run-heavy against USC.

If the Trojan rush defense can hold up against a physical Michigan offensive line, then the game suddenly falls on Orji's ability to throw the ball and that's something he likely doesn't do well enough to beat USC. Of course, Orji's dual-threat game will make it imperative that USC is aware of the QB run game but regardless of who carries the ball for Michigan, defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn must have his troops ready for a ground assault.

USC can't give Michigan extra opportunities by making critical mistakes

In this game, USC has the greater margin for error given the Trojans' advantage on offense and their ability to more easily put up points. But, if the Trojans make critical mistakes such as untimely penalties and turnovers, then Michigan might be able to hang around and pull off the upset.

So far this year, USC has given the football away just once, a fumble in the first half of the Utah State game. However, the Trojans did put the ball on the ground a couple of times against LSU and they have been fortunate that some tipped Miller Moss passes have not been picked off. Avoiding dangerous situations like that today will be important.

It will also be important that the Trojans don't give Michigan extra yardage and opportunities via penalties. The Wolverines may struggle to move the football and if they do, USC can't give them extra help by committing infractions.

Right now, USC averages only 38.5 penalty yards per game. That's good for 26th-best in the country. Meanwhile, Michigan is 73rd nationally in that category by being penalized for 56.3 yards per game.

In big games, mistakes usually play a huge role. Today, USC needs to be the cleaner team because Michigan will likely need some help to keep up with a Trojan squad that has more firepower.

USC must capitalize on red-zone opportunities

Finally, USC must put pressure on Michigan by scoring touchdowns and not settling for field goals, especially inside the red zone. Of course, it would be great to see the Trojans' explosive receivers and running backs score on big plays but the Michigan defense may prevent that.

So far, Michigan has allowed only two plays of 30 yards or more. That's tied for 19th-best in the nation.

Meanwhile, USC is just tied for 77th in the NCAA in scrimmage plays of 30 yards or more. Of course, that number is suppressed by the fact that the Trojans have played only two games while most teams have played three.

Still, it is likely that Michigan will try to keep the Trojans from racking up the yards in chunks. Yes, the Wolverines are blitzing a ton this year but it would make sense for them to play a conservative game in that regard today and try to force USC to sustain long drives with regularity.

To understand the importance of the red zone when playing Michigan, look at how important success inside the 20 was for Texas when they took down Michigan in week two. That day, the Longhorns had three touchdowns from inside the Michigan ten and another from the Michigan 21.

Thus far in 2024, USC has converted on 12 of its 13 red-zone trips. However, only eight of those conversions have been touchdowns. That's just 61.5%, which is 68th-best in the nation.

If USC has to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns, it could help keep Michigan in this game. But if Lincoln Riley's team can put the ball in the end zone when it gets close, then all the pressure will be on the Wolverines to keep pace.