How the Torvik metrics predict USC basketball will perform in 2024-25

According to Bart Torvik, USC will finish next season 13-11, including a 9-11 conference record. The Trojans' regular season schedule has yet to be released, but we know their out-of-conference and Big Ten opponents. Thus, all that's left to wonder is the order in which USC will encounter the opposition.

Nevertheless, Torvik's analytics predict USC will win a chunk of their games before Big Ten play begins. Then, the projections call for Eric Musselman's squad to start conference play on a 3-7 stretch, including losses to Oregon, UCLA, Purdue, Indiana, and Rutgers. On a positive note, Torvik's model predicts the Trojans will win a one-possession game against Michigan State later in the season.

Who is Bart Torvik?

Bart Torvik is a numbers guy who uses advanced statistics (like KenPom) to project a team's offensive and defensive efficiency. When hedged against an opponent, Torvik's calculations project a final score. Torvik creates "T-Pages" for each team, similar to the T-Rank system used in business to predict project success. Torvik's T-Ranks involve adjusted calculations for efficiencies that factor in a game's location.

Moreover, Torvik calculates individual player contributions for the season. Regarding USC, the math suggests Xavier transfer guard Desmond Claude will lead the Trojans in scoring with 14.8 PPG. Torvik also projects UC San Diego transfer guard Bryce Pope will contribute 13.9 PPG and Boise transfer Chibuzo Agbo will average 10.7 PPG.

One notable flow to the T-Page calculations is that they lack projected contributions from true freshman players. Freshman players lack the statistical collegiate sample size required to calculate future projections. Such could impact productions given USC's roster will feature a pair of four-star recruits from the 2024 class.

Of course, the most productive offensive Trojan from 2023-24 was a true freshman point guard.

We think Torvik is not far off on his predictions. Trojans fans won't want to hear this, but they must exercise patience in Musselman's first year in Los Angeles. The former Arkansas head coach was challenged to rebuild USC's entire roster and solidify a coaching staff this offseason. Another consideration is the program's move to the Big Ten conference.

Fans bhould know what USC's basketball schedule looks like by early September. Come then, we'll revisit Torvik's model to see how it changes.