Despite clear SEC bias, USC finds itself in ESPN's FPI Top 25

It can be difficult to make accurate preseason predictions. Take a team like USC, for example. The record can tell a disproportionate amount of the story from a season ago. To dismiss the positive steps that the Trojans have made that will affect the 2025 season is silly to do.

Case in point, ESPN released their FPI rankings, and USC is in the top 25. While attempting to give an unbiased projection, think about it like this. When seeing Texas, Georgia,  and Alabama as the first three teams, the likelihood of those three programs being unquestionably in the semifinals is not good at all.

Texas A&M and Tennessee being in the top 10 is probably not going to be the final picture either. What this should show is that systems are only as credible as the inputs themselves. The computer-based model runs through the entirety of the season 20,000 times. In the simulation, the model takes into account offensive and defensive strengths as well as recruiting.

Phrased another way, the artificially propped-up conference, the SEC, that has always benefitted from simply being assumed to be better than everyone else receives the benefit of the doubt yet again.

Look at Mark Bowman. He is a class of 2026 tight end who is a clear five-star prospect. Naturally, that means that ESPN has him rated as a four-star player. While this specific instance does not affect the recently released FPI rankings, it does give a known comparison that illustrates the point.

Potential encouraging sign for USC

Even so, USC did make it above SMU, Missouri, and Arkansas. The Trojans made it to No. 19 in this one. While it can be fun to discuss and debate, there have not been too many models, whether created by humans or AI, that have proved out to be particularly close to 100% accuracy.

In a silver lining, it does suggest, especially when taking the SEC bias into account, that the doom and gloom of the upcoming season is largely overblown. While finishing 19th would not be enough to warrant a College Football Playoff spot, USC would not be too far off if that's how things finished this year for the Trojans.