USC Football Odds: Vegas Projects Trojans’ Win Totals

Nov 21, 2015; Eugene, OR, USA; USC Trojans wide receiver Steven Mitchell Jr. (7) reacts to the officials call against the Oregon Ducks at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 21, 2015; Eugene, OR, USA; USC Trojans wide receiver Steven Mitchell Jr. (7) reacts to the officials call against the Oregon Ducks at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports /
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Vegas oddsmakers project USC football to win 7.5 games in 2016. Can the Trojans still be successful within that projection?

It’s widely acknowledged that USC football faces the toughest schedule in the nation in 2016. That difficult slate and questions with a new coaching staff has Vegas oddsmakers being conservative with the Trojans’ projected win totals.

As pointed out by Ted Miller of ESPN, the oddsmakers over at Vegas Insiders have set USC’s win total at 7.5 for the coming season.

That’s tied for fourth in the conference with Utah and Washington State.

Meanwhile, Washington was given the highest projected win total at nine with UCLA and Stanford projected at 8.5 and Oregon set at eight.

The important thing to consider here is that win totals are a reflection of both strength of team and difficultly of circumstances. They’re not a reflection of who the best team in the conference is or even who will win the conference.

For example, though UCLA is projected to win the most games of those teams in the Pac-12 South, winning more games overall than everyone else won’t secure them the division title.

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The Bruins miss out on Washington and Oregon this year. Avoiding two of the more difficult Pac-12 North squads makes their potential number of wins from that division an easier prospect.

USC, on the other hand, faces both the Huskies and Ducks while also taking on Alabama and Notre Dame in out of conference games.

Losing all four of those games would put the Trojan win total at eight, just above their projected total. It would also put USC in position to claim the Pac-12 South title much as they did in 2015 via tiebreakers, with a perfect 5-0 record against the division despite three losses in conference.

The Trojans won’t want to leave the division to chance — a team they’ve beaten could still take the crown with a better overall conference record — but, considering the schedule, USC’s total number of wins won’t matter as much as which wins they take.