USC vs Oregon: Final odds and predictions as the Trojans try to prove their CFP worth

A 4-0 start has the USC Trojans ranked No. 12 in the country and deep in the playoff picture. But that won't be for long if they can't beat No. 20 Oregon at home in a late afternoon start. This year has been painted as "playoffs or bust" for Lincoln Riley, but Vegas oddsmakers still want to see USC prove their worth against a top opponent and FanDuel has the Trojans as a 3.5-point underdog.

The numbers for USC against ranked opponents under Riley haven't been pretty. The Trojans are 5-13 overall in those games and 3-4 at the LA Coliseum. Losing these types of games at USC are no longer an option for Riley and the coach knows the pressure is on.

"It's what it's supposed to feel like here," Riley said earlier this week. "Expectations and all that are always there, and I've never shied away from those."

USC starts its playoff push against Oregon

Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. PT
TV: NBC/Peacock
Stream: fubo.TV
Spread: USC +3.5
Moneyline: USC +140; Oregon -170
Over/under: 61.5 points

Last week, USC went across the country and held off Rutgers, 42-35 in its Big Ten opener. Jayden Maiava threw for 277 yards and two touchdowns. The Trojans churned out 184 yards on the ground with King Miller rushing for 102 and a touchdown. USC's defense, however, gave up 460 yards to the Scarlet Knights. The pivotal play was a 99-yard pick six by Prophet Brown, a likely 14-point turnaround.

Oregon had far less trouble with Portland State, winning 84-0 against the FCS program. The Ducks were coming off of a 39-31 loss to Oklahoma State and made quick work of the Vikings. Dante Moore threw four touchdown passes in one half of work. Oregon gained 740 yards in the blowout.

Both USC and Oregon will be without key playmakers

The final injury report has USC top freshman Trent Mosley listed as doubtful, while Oregon will be without junior pass catcher Jeremiah McClellan, who will miss several weeks with a broken foot. In bigger news for the Trojans, one of the other vertical threats, Corey Simms, is ruled out. That's going to put a lot of pressure on Kayden Dixon-Wyatt and Mark Bowman in the passing game.

The weather in Los Angeles is perfect for football

It's going to be a mixture of sun and clouds around the Coliseum with the game-time temperature expected to be right around 78 degrees. There's a very light chance of rain and the winds will be out of the south and Southwest at 5-10 MPH.

The final prediction is one that I hope is wrong

USC could not only greatly improve its playoff chances and overall confidence with a win, but the Trojans could also put Oregon on the cut line by dropping the Ducks to 2-2. I wouldn't say its an absolute must-win for Riley, but it's pretty close.

Expect a back and forth game with Maiava and Moore going blow-for-blow and both defenses struggling to keep up. It could come down to the final possession and I hope I'm wrong, but the Trojans haven't shown they can hold the fort in the final minutes.

Oregon 37
USC 33 

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