USC vs. Iowa final odds and prediction: Expect bruises, not blowout against Hawkeyes

The USC Trojans are set for their second straight home game as they host No. 21 Iowa for Homecoming weekend. The Hawkeyes will look to play spoiler when the two teams clash at the Coliseum, with kickoff scheduled for 12:30 p.m. PT (3:30 p.m. ET) on the Big Ten Network.

The Trojans are gearing up for their fourth matchup against a top-25 opponent this season. USC enters the game with a 1–2 record in ranked contests, earning their lone win at home against Michigan while suffering road losses to Illinois and Notre Dame. However, the Trojans have been dominant at the Coliseum, boasting a perfect 5–0 home record. With Homecoming Weekend set to amplify the energy, fans can expect a loud and electric atmosphere as USC continues its push for a first ever College Football Playoff berth.

Final Odds for USC vs. Iowa

USC is a 6.5-point favorite on FanDuel as of noon PT on Thursday. The Trojans are -255 on the moneyline (Iowa is a +210 underdog). If you are playing the spread, the juice is -114 for USC -6.5 (or -106 for Iowa and the points).

The point total is set at 48.5 with extra juice (-105) on the over and -115) on the under. 

Final Prediction

Iowa enters the matchup with one of the nation’s toughest defenses, likely the strongest USC will face all season. Coupled with potentially unfavorable weather conditions, the Trojans could find themselves challenged early, as their high-powered offense may be at a natural disadvantage from the start.

However, USC has been very good on defense this year and though there has been moments where the secondary or pass rush doesn't quite perform to expectations, that should not be much of a factor in a game featuring an Iowa offense that relies on running the football and limiting offensive possessions. USC proved they can play that type of game as well as was evident with their 16 play opening drive touchdown a week ago versus Northwestern.

The key to this game will be USC’s ability to establish the run. This matchup shapes up to favor whichever team can control the line of scrimmage, and while the 17th-ranked Trojans have shown they can win those kinds of battles, they’ll need to prove they can do it again in a physical, grind-it-out conference clash with major postseason implications. Walk-on running back King Miller has emerged as a crucial piece of the offense, and his game-breaking speed and home-run ability have been instrumental in keeping USC’s playoff hopes alive with just three games remaining in the regular season.

I believe this game will ultimately be decided in the fourth quarter, with USC needing to show its toughness down the stretch. However, this team feels different than years past with more resilience and focus. The sense around the program is that the Trojans are building momentum toward a massive showdown with Oregon next week. With the advantage of playing at home during Homecoming Weekend, and regardless of the weather, USC’s efficiency and firepower on offense should shine through. I like the Trojans to pull out a close win and improve to 8–2 on the season.

USC 27, Iowa 20