USC’s FPI win predictions for the stretch run present a great opportunity

The USC Trojans improved to 7–2 after a commanding 38–17 home victory over Northwestern. Sitting third in the conference standings, the Trojans remain firmly in the College Football Playoff hunt as they look to close out their final three games on a high note.

USC vs IOWA (75.7% win prediction)

USC enters this matchup as the favorite and will aim to preserve its undefeated home record when the Hawkeyes visit Los Angeles. Iowa’s defense is among the most complete the Trojans will face all season, making this a crucial test for the offense. With a pivotal showdown against Oregon looming, USC must stay focused to avoid this game turning into a potential trap. This will be USC's first game facing Iowa as a conference opponent.

USC at Oregon (29.3% win prediction)

In the penultimate game of the regular season, USC will take on a familiar former Pac-12 rival, now a Big Ten opponent, in Oregon. The Ducks enter as favorites, benefiting from home-field advantage and recent success against the Trojans. However, USC has the talent to play spoiler in Eugene. If the Trojans maintain their offensive explosiveness and capitalize on Oregon’s vulnerabilities, they could very well come away with a statement win.

USC vs UCLA (94.0% win prediction)

USC will wrap up the regular season at home against UCLA in the annual Battle for the Victory Bell. Since Lincoln Riley’s arrival in Los Angeles, the road team has claimed each of the past matchups, a trend the Trojans will aim to end as they look to keep the Victory Bell painted cardinal and gold. What once appeared to be a straightforward matchup earlier in the season has grown more challenging, as a resurgent Bruins squad now presents a tougher test. USC will need to stay sharp and maintain intensity from start to finish to secure the rivalry win.

Based on the current win probabilities, USC projects for a likely 9–3 finish, with a realistic path to 10–2. A 10–2 record would almost certainly secure a College Football Playoff berth, highlighted by potential signature victories over Michigan and Oregon. However, that scenario depends on the Trojans taking care of business against teams they’re expected to beat. Lincoln Riley has emphasized growth and improvement throughout the season, and with seven wins already and three games left to play, USC now has the opportunity to validate their coach’s message.