Predicting USC's final recruiting ranking

By now, it’s no secret that USC has the No. 1 recruiting class in the country for 2026. The buzz has been building for months, and for good reason. The Trojans have landed some big-time commitments and built serious momentum on the trail. But with official visits heating up and a few major targets still weighing their options, it’s fair to ask how high this class can go and what the worst-case scenario is if things don’t all fall USC’s way. We will take a historic look at previous recruiting classes and rankings to help determine what this class may look like at the end of this cycle.

I’d be remiss not to bring up one major factor that sets this 2026 class apart from others, which is USC’s approach to NIL. This cycle, the Trojans aren’t just active in that space, but they’re aggressive and aligned from top to bottom. On3’s Steve Wiltfong even said USC is “as powerful as any program in the country in the NIL era,” which is a huge adjustment from where things stood not too long ago. An adjustment that USC fans have long been asking for.

Overview of past classes

When NIL first became legal back in the summer of 2021, USC took a pretty cautious approach. The 2022 class was the first full cycle to feel the effects of NIL, but USC held back a bit due to the space lacking structure or long term clarity. Fast forward to now, with the House settlement passed and the NIL world becoming more regulated, the Trojans look to be on the offensive and determined to bring a top recruiting class to Los Angeles.

Let’s rewind a bit and look at who finished with the top recruiting classes from 2022 through 2025. Most people remember 2022 as the year Texas A&M went all in. The Aggies signed 30 players and racked up 333.13 points on 247Sports, which still stands as the highest total ever recorded in their rankings.

USC finished 70th in the high school rankings that year. But that’s only part of the story. The Trojans brought in the No. 1 transfer class, led by quarterback Caleb Williams. That move ended up shaping the future of the program and gave USC fans a lot to cheer about over the next couple of seasons. The highest-ranked recruit for USC in the high school rankings was DB Domani Jackson, who ultimately transferred after his freshman season.

USC had much better success in 2023, finishing with the eighth-ranked class, totaling 279.29 points, and landing three five-star commitments. Those names were Zachariah Branch, Malachi Nelson, and Duce Robinson. However, all three have since transferred out of the program. However, there are major contributors from that group in Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane. Both are expected to play major roles in leading USC’s passing game in 2025. The top class that year was a familiar face in Alabama. The Tide signed 28 commits and finished with 325.59 points, continuing their tradition of recruiting dominance.

The class of 2024 took a step back as the Trojans finished 17th in the class and failed to sign a single five-star recruit. Kamari Ramsey, Jaidan Maiva, and Woody Marks joined as transfers, but from a high school recruiting standpoint, USC is still hoping for big contributors from this class. The number one class that year was Georgia, with a final commit count of 30 and 317.19 points.

In 2025, USC continued the trend of average recruiting classes, by Trojans standards anyway. A slight increase in point total saw USC finish 13th in the rankings; however, the class did include a five-star commit. Quarterback Husan Longstreet flipped his commitment from Texas A&M late in the cycle. The Trojans also pulled a major out-of-state commit in Louisiana native Jahkeem Stewart, who has a chance to be one of the most impactful freshmen in the country if all goes right. Texas finished last season's cycle with the number one class, with 25 commits and a point total of 312.27.

This brings us to the 2026 class. As mentioned earlier, USC is currently ranked as the number one class. You may have noticed by now that I have included the number one class in the past four recruiting cycles, and that was on purpose. It gives us objective data points that can realistically give us an estimation of where we can expect USC to land. Of course, this is only an estimation and does not include additional commitments, which are expected, or decommitments, which are not expected at this time, but recruiting is fluid, and until pen is on paper, anything can happen.

From 2022 through 2025, the number one recruiting class averaged a score of 322.45. Both Texas A&M and Alabama went over that mark in ’22 and ’23, with A&M’s 333.13 still standing as the highest total ever and likely won't ever be reached again. That number certainly drives the average up. Those No. 1 classes also averaged about 28 commits (technically 28.25, but we’ll round down) and brought in an average of six five-star players per class. So with these data points, how does USC stack up when it comes to holding onto the top spot in 2026? At the time of this writing, USC sits at 294.56 points, which gives them a comfortable 34-point lead over second-place Georgia.

Current recruiting landscape at USC

It’s anticipated and expected that USC will surpass the 300-point mark, which would be a first in the NIL recruiting era for the Trojans. The 28-commit threshold has already been surpassed with 29 players on board, and it’s very likely they’ll go over 30. General Manager Chad Bwoden has been clear that he wants USC to sign a big class; however, he has not given a total number of what he wants that to be. When it comes to five-star commitments, USC has one commit that 247Sports currently recognizes as a composite five-star in offensive tackle Keenyi Pepe.

However, tight end Mark Bowman is also rated as a five-star in the 247Sports database, so depending on how you count it, the Trojans may already be sitting at two. It is not likely that USC will finish with more five-star commitments, but there is certainly potential that they land one more. I wouldn't anticipate that number surpassing three, which would place USC behind the average in this data point.

So with all this considered, what is USC's ceiling and floor for the 2026 class?

USC’s 2026 recruiting class has a legitimate ceiling of finishing with the top class in the country. If the Trojans can close strong and hold onto their current commitments, they have a real shot at maintaining their position at the top. However, the margin is likely to tighten as other top programs make their moves, and the battle for the top spot could come down to the wire.

The floor for this group appears to be a top-five finish. USC has already accumulated more points than any team that has finished fifth in each of the past four cycles, with the highest total coming from Big Ten rival Oregon, which finished with 292 points last year. While the results of the upcoming season could play a significant role in how USC ultimately rounds out the 2026 class, the Trojans are firmly in the lead for now, and they have every opportunity to close out with one of the best hauls in the country.