Why the 2024 season is pivotal for Lincoln Riley's future at USC

College football is an extremely impatient industry in which head coaches are expected to produce immediate results. Lincoln Riley did just that when he led USC to a conference title game and Cotton Bowl appearances in his first season with the program. However, the Trojans took a step backward in Riley's second season.

The Trojans finished 2023 with a bowl game win, but awful defense plagued Riley's squad, who finished with an 8-5 record. Five losses is not acceptable for a storied program like USC. A 2024 recruiting class ranked No. 18 and void of a five-star prospect is also unacceptable. Thus, many sports media members and college football fans are speculating the Trojans head coach is on the hot seat in 2024.

Head coaches are expected to win by year three.

College football head coaches are typically expected to show results in year three. A head coach should have solidified his staff by his third year and turned over the roster. The coach's recruits from his first recruiting class also start trickling onto the field by year three.

Riley recently replaced defensive coordinator Alex Grinch and overhauled the defensive staff last season. As such, the USC head coach has likely burned through the only scapegoat he'll receive in Southern California. Either way, all eyes are on Riley's Trojans this season... his third season at the helm of Troy.

How Riley can stay off the hot seat

USC has a brutal schedule and will embark on long road trips as new Big Ten Conference members in 2024. Riley also has an uphill battle on the recruiting trail, where his 2025 class currently ranks No. 18. To show the expected progress in year three, Riley must finish with a top-10 (preferably top-5) recruiting class. Moreover, the Trojans must field a vastly improved defense and remain in the Big Ten title game picture.

Another 8-5 finish likely won't spell the end of Riley's tenure in Troy, but he must accumulate wins over some of USC's most challenging opponents. The Trojans must also avoid getting blown out in games against the Big Ten's best teams.

Lincoln Riley will definitely see a year four at USC if his team demonstrates that it belongs in the Big Ten.