Trapped in Berkeley: Scondi’s USC vs. Cal 2017 preview

After eking out an overtime victory against Texas, the Trojans go on the road for the first time this season for the annual USC vs. Cal game.

USC cannot die.

They are Jon Snow in Game of Thrones. You think their tragic death will change everything moving forward, but instead they are miraculously resurrected by a red-head.

They are Kenny from South Park. Every time you think they are dead, they just come back the next week like nothing happened.

They are every villain in a horror movie. The main characters think it’s over and they let their guard down, but they come back and take one more victim.

USC is Mike Myers at the end of Halloween. They got shot and fell off the second story but that doesn’t mean you should go on with your life. Get down there and finish the job.

Have you’ve ever watched Zombieland? If you haven’t, stop reading and do that now. In the movie, they have several rules for surviving a zombie apocalypse.

One of those rules is Rule #2: The Double Tap.

“You think it’s dead (technically it was before you shot it), one more makes 100 percent sure.”

Texas didn’t double tap.

Opponents haven’t learned to shoot the Trojans a second time and confirm the kill. They’ve turned their back thinking the worst is over, only to realize the team is about to come back from the grave like the Undertaker.

USC is pushing their luck. The Trojans aren’t a cat with nine lives. Eventually, they will fall.

Is Cal the team that will do it?

Cal Team Preview

Note: Bill Connelly’s team preview of Cal forms the basis of much of my research. He deserves all the recognition.

Record

All that glitters is Gold…en Bears as Cal has started their season going 3-0.

After an upset on the road against UNC and victories at home against Weber State (shout out Damian Lillard, and Ole Miss, the Golden Bears have already exceeded most fans’ season expectations in what was anticipated as a reset year for the program.

Then again, it seems like every year is a reset year for Cal.

Coach

Last year, Cal fired head coach Sonny Dykes. It wasn’t because of the Golden Bears 5-7 record, although it didn’t help. It was because he constantly expressed interest in coaching other programs whenever they had an open vacancy. Throughout his time at Cal, Sonny Dykes was more flirtatious than Taylor Swift trying to find inspiration for her new album.

Because Sonny Dykes was only interested in the offensive side of the ball, Cal overcompensated by hiring defensive “guru” Justin Wilcox.

Wilcox has spent a majority of his career coaching in the Pac-12. The last time he was on the West Coast, he was at USC, where he spent two years driving Trojans fans insane with his passive play calling and inability to create a competent defense with a treasure chest of four- and five-star recruits.

I’m sure he will be able to succeed with players with less skill.

Offense

The stark culture change of a new head coach doesn’t seem to have changed Cal’s strategy of an air-raid offense as former EWU head coach Beau Baldwin has been hired as offensive coordinator.

The air-raid offense might seem familiar to Trojans fans, as it is used by a lot of Pac-12 schools looking to compensate with their lack of talent.

The air-raid offense is built on getting the ball out quickly and creating efficient gains by forcing defenses to make open-field tackles.  When run effectively, it can wear down a defense and force them to take risks in order to get off the field.

There are downsides to the air-raid offense as it puts pressure on the team to keep scoring without committing a lot of mistakes. A team that wants to run the air-raid offense shouldn’t score less than 30 points a game.

Cal is without last year’s starting quarterback, starting running back, leading wide receiver and five offensive linemen that combined for 120 career starts.

Despite that, the team has a ton of depth. So much so that all the players I had written down as starters before the season began have barely seen the field.

The team is led by quarterback Ross Bowers, who has thrown for 799 yards, five touchdowns and four interceptions. Most of his passes has been thrown to Vic Wharton III and Kanawai Noa, who have combined for 26 receptions, 396 yards and two touchdowns.

The Golden Bears also have a dual threat (not the quarterback kind) with wide receiver Demetris Robertson, who has seven receptions and a rushing touchdown in two games this season. Robertson’s status is uncertain for the game with an undisclosed injury. The team wouldn’t even specify the general area that is ailing Robertson.

At least hockey teams tell us if the injury is upper-body or lower-body.

With Tre Watson out for the year, the Golden Bears will have to lean on Patrick Laird as their main running option. So far, this season he has rushed for 278 yards and four touchdowns. He’s also collected eight receptions for 94 yards and a touchdown.

Patrick Laird is a deceptively fast running back with a lot of grit. He’s the kind of guy who wears a hard hat and brings his lunch pail every day. A real gym rat that is first one in and last one out.

There’s not much experience in the trenches, although center Addison Ooms is back. Luckily, the air-raid offense is very friendly towards less talented lines, spreading out the defense sideline to sideline and making it harder to attack the quarterback.

Defense

The defense is currently ranked 114 allowing more than 475 yards a game, so it’s safe to say that Justin Wilcox’s presence is already felt three games into the season.

Wilcox is known for his bend-don’t-break defense, which sounds like an excuse you make when that side of the ball is bad, but not bad enough to ruin your team’s success. It gives up a lot of yards, but when the offense gets into the red zone, they might kick a field goal once or twice.

I don’t know if the bend-don’t-break concept was coined by Wilcox himself, but it’s an incredible way to increase your job security. It’s basically admitting the defense will be okay at best.

Okay, may be enough for Golden Bears fans, who haven’t seen a defense since those protestors lived in the campus oak trees in order to prevent the university’s athletic building from being constructed.

Cal’s greatest strength may be in the secondary as they’ve forced five interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown. This was supposed to be their strength last year, but an abundance of injuries prevented that. Fifteen defensive backs had at least one tackle per game, but only five played in every game.

Last year’s injuries will be this year’s depth as 13 of those 15 players are back. Unfortunately, the Golden Bears can only play four to six at a time.

The front seven will be a weakness due to the amount of turnover and the scheme change from new defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter.

Cal will switch from the 4-3 to a 3-4, which harder than it seems.

Changing to a 3-4 defense isn’t just taking a tackle off the field and replacing him with a linebacker. In order to change to be smooth, the defensive line must have the size to fill the gaps and occupy one to two blockers to free up the linebackers to make plays.

The weight of the defensive ends seems fine, but at nose guard, Tony Mekari is listed at 295 pounds. It may seem like a lot, but consider that Josh Fatu weighs 315 pounds. Not sure where Mekari is going to be able to add the weight when half the restaurants near school are vegan and gluten-free.

The linebacker corps will be led by Devante Downs, who leads the Pac-12 in tackles, ranks second in sacks and interceptions and third in tackles for loss.

Cal’s defense will have to rely on their youth to succeed. They always said children are the future.

Special Teams

On special teams, kicker Matt Anderson is having a somewhat down year after being 33 in field goal efficiency in 2016. He’s currently 4-for-7 for field goals and 11-for-12 for extra points.

How do you miss an extra point in college? Vince Wilfork could make one from that close.

Luckily for the special teams, Dylan Lumph is continuing to be one of the best punters in the league. Guess the hang time isn’t the only thing getting high in Berkeley.

Their return game is questionable, but then again, so is USC. It’s just the value is so much more in the Bay Area than in Los Angeles. That was a rent joke.

Should I Stay Or Should I Go

This is USC’s first road game this season, so this section may be a little different. It’s hard to tell fans on a Thursday or Friday to travel over three hundred miles on a whim, but given that it’s the Weekender, I’m sure there are more than a few traveling to the Bay Area this weekend that are still on the fence about going to the game.

If you have a ticket, go to the game. If you don’t, I’m sure many of the bars on Union Street in San Francisco will have the game on.

It’s that simple. The game is at 12:30 p.m. That means if you want to tailgate you’ll have to get up around 7:30 a.m. Saturdays are for the boys, not for waking up at the crack of dawn.

Lucky for myself, 7:30 a.m. is sleeping in. If someone can tell me what’s the best way to get to Cal’s campus Saturday, it’ll be much appreciated.

If you want to sit this one out, don’t fret. There will be many more Cal games in the future, but maybe not in any other sport but football.

California taxpayers must be thrilled to have to help pay for Cal’s poorly renovated stadium for the next hundred years.

Prediction

Last week, I’ll admit that I may have underestimated Texas, but my suggestions for USC to expand their rotations in the defense and wide receiver corps still stand.

With the abundance of injuries, it may not be a choice for defense to lean on some of the younger guys lower on the depth chart. Many showed they are up to the challenge, holding their own against the Longhorns in the second half.

With no byes, USC has to start thinking about resting some of their more hurt starters. The Trojans can’t risk their players’ long term health.

This isn’t a video game. You can’t just go reset the season when half your team is out for the year.

Tee Martin needs to get more physical with the bag or find some shoulder pads and a helmet lying around and give the wide receivers a full simulation.

They are dropping more balls than Times Square during New Year’s Eve.

The Trojans need to expand the rotation. Clay Helton should give the Serra Spacex (Jalen Greene) one misfire before pulling him and preventing the passing attack from imploding. Where is Michael Pittman? (Healthy?) Where is Joseph Lewis? (Injured) USC still needs a deep threat to keep the secondary honest.

Sam Darnold needs to throw a couple deep balls this week regardless of who is catching it. I don’t care if they end up being arm punts. USC needs to establish a long passing option or defenses will learn to not respect any big play ability from the Trojans and the window for open receivers will become narrower and narrower.

USC not only needs to retool their passing attack but they also need to reestablish the running game they had against Stanford.

It should be a lot less difficult than last week. Key word: should.

With some of more marquee games out-of-the-way, USC fans are preparing themselves for the worst.

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The way they are doing that this year is calling every week a trap game. This week is a trap game. Next week is a trap game. The week after that? You guessed it, a trap game.

It can’t be a trap game if you’re expecting it, unless you willingly walk into traps.

If so, think twice next time you see a random piece of cheese lying on the ground.

There’s a lot of factors for why Trojans fan are expecting an upset in Berkeley this Saturday. Almost half the starters are injured. Cal is a lot better than expected. Stanford may not be as good as people thought. This is the third time in four weeks USC is playing against a first-year coach so there isn’t a lot of tape on Justin Wilcox’s Golden Bears. Not only that, but Wilcox has worked with the USC coaching staff so he’s more familiar with our team than the other way around.

USC always finds a way to lose to a lesser opponent at least once a season, so why shouldn’t fans expect it this week?

Because USC has beaten Cal 12 straight times.

Let’s make it a baker’s dozen.

USC 35, Cal 21