Why we're suspicious of news that USC football will flip a four-star safety in 2025 class

On Sunday, recruiting insider Scott Schrader logged an expert prediction that USC football will flip Kendarius Reddick. Reddick is a four-star safety who committed to UCF on February 3rd.

USC opened its arms to Reddick among several top 2025 recruits for this weekend's official visit. We assume the trip went as planned because On3's Recruiting Prediction Machine jumped the Trojans' odds of signing Reddick to 93.9%. Meanwhile, poor UCF retains a meager 1.2% chance of maintaining the nation's 76th-ranked player.

Flipping Reddick would offer some much-needed good news for USC football fans. Last week, many of us grimaced after a pair of five-star defensive linemen decommitted from the Trojans. Their departures dropped Lincoln Riley's 2025 class from No. 2 to No. 11 in the On3 industry team rankings.

Why we're suspicious of Reddick (potentially) flipping to USC

We think Kendarius Reddick will announce his decommitment from UCF and subsequent commitment to USC within the next 48 hours. However, we're pessimistic that Riley and company will ultimately sign the four-star safety.

Reddick is a Thomas County Central (GA) prospect who lives roughly three hours from Auburn. He was initially committed to Auburn but flipped to UCF after an official visit in February. Now, news that the 6-foot, 175-pounder will likely flip to USC after an official visit raises eyebrows.

It is common for some recruits to change their minds during official visits to college programs, especially early in recruiting cycles. Young people tend to be indecisive, and recency bias is real. Thus, we suspect Reddick's potential flip to USC will last as long as his next official visit to a school.

Our concerns also align with the dynamic that resulted in Isaiah Gibson and Justus Terry's decommitments. USC is at a disadvantage when recruiting players in SEC territory. Everything from the proximity of Georgia, Alabama, and Auburn to potential homesickness factors in. Thus, we believe Riley's expending time and resources to recruit Southeast talent is counterproductive.

A third and final concern is that Reddick is leveraging his commitment to secure a better NIL deal from Auburn. We don't fault the young man for playing the NIL market to maximize his value, but we wish USC weren't involved. Conversely, we are still determining Reddick's motivations for flipping his commitment.

Should the Trojans ultimately contradict our concerns and sign Reddick, there would be much to celebrate. He is a talented player who fits well into USC's pipeline of high-profile safeties.