Is Lincoln Riley a hot seat candidate in 2025?

There’s always a clear sign that college football season is just around the corner, and this time of year, it’s conference media days. With the SEC wrapping up its turn last week, the spotlight now shifts to the Big Ten, the other powerhouse conference in the sport. A recently released preseason media poll projects the USC Trojans to finish ninth in the conference standings. But fortunately for USC, games aren’t won in preseason predictions. They’re won on the field, where rankings don’t matter, and performance speaks for itself.

However, while preseason polls may carry little actual weight, USC’s ninth-place projection does offer a glimpse, however brief, into the current public perception of the program heading into the 2025 season. And with that perception trending downward, a fair question begins to emerge: Is Lincoln Riley at risk of finding himself on the hot seat at some point during the 2025 calendar year?

Let’s hold off on the on-field performance for now. When it comes to evaluating whether a coach is truly on the hot seat, especially one leading a blue blood program like USC, the conversation almost always begins (and sometimes ends) with the financials. Financially, Lincoln Riley is on exceptionally solid ground. His contract is long-term and extremely coach-friendly. Based on publicly available federal tax filings and consistent media reporting, Riley earns between $10 million and $11 million per year, which aligns with the widely accepted belief that his overall deal spans 10 years and is worth approximately $110 million.

Simply put, Lincoln Riley is one of the highest-paid coaches in college football, and that kind of investment makes any conversation about his job security far more complicated than wins and losses alone. Based on the numbers alone, along with a wide range of credible reporting and reasonable financial estimates, it’s fair to assume that Lincoln Riley’s buyout currently sits somewhere between $80 million and $90 million. Even for a program with the financial backing and brand power of USC, that’s a staggering figure. Shelling out that kind of money to part ways with a head coach, no matter the circumstances, would be a tough sell even to the university’s most deep-pocketed donors. In short, while public perception may be cooling, the financial reality of Riley’s contract provides a substantial buffer against any immediate threat to his job security.

It’s clear that the financial implications of Lincoln Riley’s contract provide a strong buffer against any immediate or serious threat to his job security. Even if the noise around his performance grows louder, the sheer cost of a buyout makes any swift or reactionary move highly unlikely. From a football standpoint, it’s also difficult to envision a scenario where Riley finds himself firmly on the hot seat by season’s end. While expectations at USC are always high, and last season’s struggles didn’t go unnoticed, Riley still has a proven offensive track record, a highly regarded quarterback room, and a revamped coaching staff aimed at addressing the team’s biggest weaknesses. Unless things completely spiral, which seems improbable, it’s far more likely that 2025 is viewed as a make-or-break year that sets the tone for Riley’s long-term trajectory, rather than one that threatens his tenure outright.

It was mentioned earlier that USC is ranked ninth in the preseason Big Ten media poll. While preseason rankings should always be taken with a grain of salt, they do provide a rough framework for expectations. By that standard, USC is set to face four Big Ten teams projected below them and five ranked above them, creating a fairly balanced conference schedule. In terms of layout, five of those Big Ten games are at home, four are on the road, and the Trojans also travel to face Notre Dame in South Bend, giving them five road trips in total. All things considered, this is not an overwhelming slate, especially by Big Ten standards, and it allows for both margin and momentum. Now, what does a “complete spiral” actually mean in the context of Lincoln Riley and USC in 2025? In simple terms, a losing regular-season record would trigger real pressure inside the athletic department.

USC is not paying Riley north of $10 million a year to go 6–6 or worse, especially not after the underwhelming results of 2023 and 2024. Fortunately for Riley and USC, the path to a strong start is laid out clearly. The Trojans open the season with two favorable non-conference matchups, followed by winnable Big Ten games against Purdue and Michigan State. There’s a very realistic chance USC starts 4–0, setting up what could be a pivotal early-season showdown in Champaign, Illinois, against the Fighting Illini, a game that could help define the tone of USC’s season. Nothing is guaranteed, but the early portion of the schedule presents an opportunity not just to win but to stabilize the program’s narrative before it ever veers toward instability.

Reasonable outlook for current USC team

It’s fair for Lincoln Riley and USC to face criticism after the last two seasons, particularly given the high expectations that accompanied his arrival and the disappointing finishes that followed. But 2025 represents a clean slate. Riley didn’t inherit a turnkey program; he took over a team that had been stuck in a cycle of instability and underperformance for years before he arrived in Southern California. Since then, he’s been focused on building not just winning games but also laying the foundation for a program capable of sustained national relevance. This offseason has brought a noticeable shift in tone. There’s genuine momentum, improved roster depth, and a work ethic echoing throughout the program that suggests USC is learning how to finish games, win tough matchups, and reestablish itself as a legitimate player in both the Big Ten and the national picture.

While skepticism remains in some corners, Riley is unlikely to face serious hot-seat pressure in 2025, not just because of financial protection, but because the program appears to be trending in the right direction. If USC capitalizes on its schedule, delivers on its potential, and shows signs of growth, the narrative could shift quickly from doubt to belief, keeping the Trojans firmly on the path toward becoming the elite program Riley was hired to build.