Does USC Football Deserve a Top 5 Ranking In Final Polls?

Does USC football deserve a Top 5 ranking after beating Penn State in the Rose Bowl? There’s a good chance the Trojans rise in the polls.

After USC football’s last-second victory over Penn State on Monday night, senior offensive lineman Zach Banner had a message for voters.

“They better have us in the Top 5 after this game,” Banner said. “That’s not cockiness, that’s confidence. That’s well-deserved confidence. USC’s back. Write that.”

It’s not surprising that Banner feels that way, especially on the back of such a thrilling game to complete a nine-game winning streak.

But is he right? Do the Trojans deserve a place as one of the Top 5 teams in the nation?

Having entered bowl season as the ninth-ranked team in the AP Top 25, getting into the Top 5 would involve a sizable leap.

Here’s how the AP shook out before any bowl games were played and how each team fared:

1. Alabama  (14-0) — beat Washington
2. Ohio State (11-2) — lost to Clemson
3. Clemson (13-1) — beat Ohio State
4. Washington (12-2) — lost to Alabama
5. Penn State (11-3) — lost to USC
6. Michigan (10-3) — lost to Florida State
7. Oklahoma (11-2) — beat Auburn
8. Wisconsin (11-3) — beat Western Michigan
9. USC (10-3) — beat Penn State
10. Florida State (10-3) — beat Michigan

Four teams ranked ahead of the Trojans lost their postseason game, whether a bowl or playoff semifinal. USC and Clemson were the only teams in the Top 10 to beat a team ranked above them.

With Alabama and Clemson, who will square off in the championship game next week, it’s easy. Whoever wins will be ranked No. 1. The runner-up will be ranked No. 2.

After that, it gets very muddled. It’ll come down to what criteria voters lean on.

If voters base their ballots with win-loss record weighed heavily, then the Top 10 would follow familiar rules, with the hierarchy determined by losses.

For instance, behind the two title game participants, there are three two-loss teams — Washington, Ohio State and Oklahoma — to be ranked in a block.

After them, there’s a contingent of three-loss squads — USC, Penn State, Wisconsin, Florida State and Michigan to consider.

Here’s an example of a ranking under that philosophy, with head-to-head and bowl performance serving as tie-breakers:

1. Alabama  (14-0)
2. Clemson (13-1)
3. Washington (12-2)
4. Ohio State (11-2)
5. Oklahoma (11-2)
6. USC (10-3)
7. Penn State (11-3)
8. Wisconsin (11-3)
9. Florida State (10-3)
10. Michigan (10-3)

In that case, USC’s three-losses would remain their biggest hurdle when it comes to national recognition, locking them out of the Top 5. However, their impressive finish to the season would give them the status as the top-ranked three-loss team.

If, on the other hand, the voters take the opportunity to cast their ballot as a reflection of the “best” teams at the end of the season, the poll could look very different.

USC could, theoretically, finish as high as No. 3.

Here’s a hypothetical “form” ranking:

1. Alabama  (14-0)
2. Clemson (13-1)
3. USC (10-3)
4. Washington (12-2)
5. Oklahoma (11-2)
6. Penn State (11-3)
7. Ohio State (11-2)
8. Wisconsin (11-3)
9. Florida State (10-3)
10. Michigan (10-3)

With Alabama and Clemson locked in, USC would get major credit as the hottest team in college football, rising six places to No. 3.

Since the Trojans beat Washington head-to-head and Ohio State was so thoroughly beaten by Clemson, such a leap could be justified.

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After all, USC finished the year on a tear, upsetting the Huskies on the road and dominating every other opponent in their way before finishing strongly against the Nittany Lions.

Oklahoma and Wisconsin could take offense to being leapfrogged by the Trojans having easily handled their bowl opposition, but neither beat an opponent as formidable as Penn State in such a high-profile game.

Voters could view Oklahoma’s 10-game winning streak as more impressive than USC’s nine-in-a-row or opt not to punish Ohio State for losing in the semifinal, but both of those scenarios would still see the Trojans rightfully sitting inside the Top 5 in the final rankings.

Either way, USC enters the 2017 offseason with the wind at their back and will certainly feature among the Top 5 when preseason polls arrive.