Early 2016 USC Football Schedule Daunting But Not Invincible

A murder’s row of first month opponents will be treacherous for USC football in 2016, but their season won’t be defined by the outcomes of September.

English playwright William Congreve once wrote that hell hath no fury like a woman scorned. Though if you’ve taken a second to look at USC’s 2016 schedule, you’d be tempted to argue in favor of schedule makers.

Not only do the Trojans open their season against the defending national champion Alabama, their first month features daunting road trips to highly ranked Stanford, along with a Friday night date at Utah’s raucous Rice-Eccles Stadium.

Oh, and add in a home tilt with Utah State. The same Utah State that has won at least a division title in three of the last four years, most of which without oft-injured star quarterback Chuckie Keeton.

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Quite simply, the month of September is brutal for USC football. It’s so rough that a 2-2 record would hardly be anything to be ashamed of.

But the reality that is that it doesn’t have to be like looking down the barrel of a shotgun. And it won’t be the deciding factor in whether or not Clay Helton’s first full season as the Trojans’ head coach will be considered a boom or bust.

Nov 7, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Southern California Trojans coach Clay Helton embraces receiver Deontay Burnett (80) before the NCAA football game against the Arizona Wildcats at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

If history’s told us anything, it’s that the start of the season has meant virtually nothing in the race for the Pac-12 South crown. That’s key, if USC is going to become the first team to repeat as winners.

In 2011, the Trojans finished the year atop the table despite losing to intradivision rival Arizona State in Week 4. The loss galvanized Lane Kiffin’s team, and they managed to go 7-1 the rest of the way

to claim their first division title

.

The following year, UCLA had a nearly identical run. The Bruins lost in Week 4 to Oregon State, followed by a road loss to Cal in Week 6, giving them a 1-2 start to Pac-12 play. They rallied and finished as Pac-12 South champs with a 6-3 record.

Arizona State followed suit in 2013, getting over an early dismantling at Stanford that ran their overall record to 3-2 after a loss to Notre Dame. The Sun Devils would then go on a tear, finishing 8-1 in the conference to claim an outright division title.

Then there’s the peculiar case of 2014 Arizona. While the Wildcats got off to the best start of any Pac-12 South Champ at 5-0, losses to USC and UCLA saddled Rich Rodriguez’s team with a 3-2 conference record halfway through the conference slate. They finished strong to take the South outright at 7-2.

The opposite side of the coin is that in 2013 and 2014, early season losses derailed USC. They were behind the eight ball known as a red-hot ASU in the former, and snake-bitten by an ASU Hail Mary in the latter.

Those tiebreakers set the Trojans back tremendously and made it significantly harder to keep pace.

It’s not until the Week 4 trip to Utah that USC will find itself playing for stakes.

Why? Because other than early trouble being the common thread among the Pac-12’s winners, the South has been ruled by those who conquered the division themselves, as opposed to simply beating up on the North.

In 2012, both of UCLA’s early losses were to the North. They finished by going 5-0 against the South.

In 2013, Arizona State’s lone loss was to the North. They finished by going 5-0 against the South.

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In 2015, both of USC’s early losses were to the North. They finished by going 5-0 against the South.

In 2016, the Trojans’ two toughest early season games are against a team out of the SEC, and a team from the Pac-12 North.

It’s not until the Week 4 trip to Utah that USC will find itself playing for stakes.

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Add in the following games against ASU, Colorado and Arizona, it’s clear that October is the month that will play the biggest role in determining the Trojans’ fate.

The worst-case and odds-on scenario of losses to Alabama and Stanford won’t look good in the AP poll or the local papers, but they would hardly be insurmountable early season obstacles.

Besides, if the Trojans make out it out of September alive, they’ll only have more experience and more reasons to tell a more powerful story on their season-ending Blu-Ray.