USC Football in teens of ESPN FPI preseason rankings for 2018

USC Football ranks outside of the Top 10 in the preseason edition of ESPN’s Football Power Index rankings for 2018.

It’s still early in the offseason, but the preseason rankings for ESPN’s Football Power Index are out and USC Football sits a decidedly un-hyped No. 15.

The Trojans aren’t even the top-ranked team in the Pac-12. That’s a crown reserved for No. 6 Washington. Nor are they second-best in the conference, trailing No. 13 Stanford. Those two will duke it out in the North, with No. 19 Oregon or No. 27 Cal perhaps having a say, but USC is definitely king of the South per ESPN.

Utah is the next highest-rated team in USC’s division, ranking No. 33. Arizona is No. 42 while UCLA checks in at No. 42, just a couple notches above No. 51 ASU.

What is FPI? It’s ESPN’s “predictive rating system.” It factors in a team’s statistical performance over the past four seasons, with the most weight given to the most recent season, as well as the presence of a returning head coach, quarterback and the number of overall offensive and defensive returning starters. On top of that, it considers recruiting rankings going back years.

Looking at that criteria, the Trojans’ No. 15 rankings makes perfect sense.

Statistically, USC has finished 21st, 9th, 22nd and 12th in ESPN’s team efficiency rankings since 2014. They return head coach Clay Helton, but lose quarterback Sam Darnold, which is a sizable down tick. All-in-all, there are 16 returning starters on tap for 2018.

USC’s offensive rank is down to No. 28, with the defense actually rising double-digits to No. 13 in the preseason. That’s likely down to the strength of the Trojans’ recent recruiting classes. On special teams, a rank of No. 4 seems rather high considering last year’s efficiency rank of 62nd. However, returning every starter at specialist positions no doubt helps.

From a statistical perspective, there’s no reason the Trojans shouldn’t repeat as South champions.

Of course, non-statistical factors will ultimately decide that prize. How quickly will UCLA and Arizona settle in under the new regimes of Chip Kelly and Kevin Sumlin? Will Kyle Whittingham’s perpetual competitiveness in the division final translate to dominance with Tyler Huntley running the show? And most critically, how will USC’s replace Sam Darnold?

The offseason stage is set for the Trojans to meet expectations in the division and overachieve in the national standings.