Over/Under Stat Predictions for 2016 USC Football Players

The 2016 USC football season is set to kickoff. To get ready, the Reign of Troy team made some over/under predictions on year-end totals for the Trojans’ biggest producers.

This year’s USC football features a host of dynamic playmakers, including Adoree’ Jackson, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Ronald Jones. Each brings a different element to the Trojans, and should find themselves in the stat book early and often.

But will each of those three, plus USC’s other star players, reach individual milestones this year? The RoT team sat down to go through over/under stat predictions. Let’s start at quarterback:

Max Browne: O/U 30 Touchdowns

Alicia de Artola: Under. It’s not that Browne isn’t capable of throwing 30 touchdowns. It’s that USC shouldn’t need him to. The Trojans will want to lean on the running game this season, which should cut into Browne’s potential total.

Michael Castillo: Under. Should Browne stay healthy, 30 touchdowns are surely within reach. Though a difficult slate against defensive-minded teams and the possibility of Sam Darnold becoming a red zone fixture could limit his bottom line. Let’s say he gets close but falls just short.

Bill Quimby: Under. Max Browne should throw around 28 or 29 touchdowns, and will need to if USC wants to play in the Rose Bowl. More than that will be difficult, especially with a run-first philosophy on offense.

Jordan Gettinger: Under. It will be somewhere between 20 and 25 passing touchdowns.

Bryan Karbasi: Under

JuJu Smith-Schuster: O/U 100 Catches

Alicia de Artola: Over. There’s reasons to pick the under, namely that 100 catches is a lot of action for a receiver, especially in an offense that should have renewed emphasis on the run. Still, the annual game of “Who will be the second receiver?” has grown so tiresome that I’m not willing to bet on anyone. Smith-Schuster has the talent to do it. But it’ll come down to USC’s willingness to get him there.

Michael Castillo: Under. If JuJu couldn’t catch 100 passes in 14 games last year, even with a broken hand and a tweaked lower body in November, he’s probably not going to do so this year. USC has too many weapons at receiver for him to be as force fed as he was last year with Cody Kessler. Plus, Helton has indicated that he’d like to focus on running the football and distributing the wealth.

Bill Quimby: Under. JuJu will have a big year with over a 1,000 yards receiving, but I’m not sure if he exceeds 100 catches. USC has not established a second option for Browne to throw to. That means JuJu will be covered, maybe double teamed, until some one else steps up. The talent is there in Steven Mitchell and Michael Pittman, but they will need to show out first, then draw coverages before we can talk about JuJu catching over 100 balls.

Jordan Gettinger: Expect at least 100 catches for JuJu.

Bryan Karbasi: Over

Justin Davis and Ronald Jones: O/U 1,000 Rushing Yards

Alicia de Artola: Both over. I wrote earlier this year about what it would take for the two running backs to both eclipse 1,000. The short version: not all that much. Both came very close despite neither featuring from the start of the season. So with both healthy and ready to go this year, double 1,000s is within reach.

Michael Castillo: Both over. Assuming good health, count on it happening. The Trojans haven’t had two four-digit rushers since 2005 with Reggie Bush and LenDale White, but both Davis and Jones came close last year, eclipsing the 900-yard mark. With Tre Madden off to the NFL and Helton stressing the run game, a similar yards per carry pace from 2015 will make it happen.

Bill Quimby: If they both stay healthy, each will eclipse 1,000 yards. New offensive line coach Neil Callaway will focus a talented and experienced offensive front on opening holes for these two explosive backs. I would even go as far to venture that if Sam Darnold started at quarterback, he would gain 600-700 rushing yards this year.

Jordan Gettinger: Count on 1,000 yards for Ronald Jones, but Justin Davis comes in just under.

Bryan Karbasi: Ronald Jones over, but Justin Davis under.

Adoree’ Jackson: O/U 7 Total Touchdowns

Alicia de Artola: Under. Jackson can do anything he sets his mind to, but seven touchdowns is a lot to ask from a player whose involvement on offense will be lessened this year. If I were breaking it down, I would predict one defensive touchdown, two receiving touchdowns and three special teams scores. That would still equal a fine season for the junior.

Michael Castillo: Over. This is a risk, given his move to more of a cornerback-focused role in 2016. However, with John Baxter as a special teams coach, not to mention the heightened play of Iman Marshall, which should see Jackson targeted more at cornerback for more defensive touchdown opportunities. Plus, my sneaking suspicion is that he plays more receiver than anyone expects him to, and at a higher level, making him more of a potential home run threat.

Bill Quimby: Under. Adoree’ will have a special year, but as a lock down comer. That will get him paid when selected in the NFL draft and should be his focus. Also, teams will likely try not kick to him. I bet he has a couple or three touchdowns just because he’s so electric on the field.

Jordan Gettinger: Under. Expect at least five touchdowns for Adoree’.

Bryan Karbasi: Over

Porter Gustin: O/U 10 Sacks

Alicia de Artola: Over. Gustin was a terror as a freshman and he’s only gotten bigger and stronger. In Clancy Pendergast’s aggressive scheme, without Scott Felix in the mix, he’ll have more license to get after the quarterback. Given his ability, that’ll mean plenty of sacks to pile up.

Michael Castillo: Over. This one is easy. Gustin has looked solid since the start of fall camp and has all the makings for a breakout year in Clancy Pendergast’s multiple defense. When it’s all said and done, he could wind up being the most impactful player on USC’s defense.

Bill Quimby: Over. The predator in Clancy’s defensive scheme is a tremendous fit for Porter, and he is making the most of it by adding 20-25 pounds of muscle. He should have played much more last year, when he lead the team with 5.5 sacks. Now as a starter in this defense, and in this kind of shape…sky is the limit.

Jordan Gettinger: Under. The Trojans will swarm the quarterback as a unit this fall, not just Gustin.

Bryan Karbasi: Push