How Do Penultimate Playoff Rankings Affect Chances of a USC Rose Bowl?

The penultimate College Football Playoff Rankings are out, but could they have an impact on the chances of a USC Rose Bowl berth?

Dreams of a USC Rose Bowl were dashed when the Trojans found out they wouldn’t be playing in the Pac-12 Championship Game on Friday night in Santa Clara. But all is not lost, as they’ll be keeping a close eye on Washington and Colorado’s duel.

With a No. 4 ranking in the new CFP Rankings, Washington has the opportunity of earning a bid to the Playoff with a win, while No. 8 Colorado sits on the outside looking in.

Should the Huskies get the win and then make the cut, the Rose Bowl will need a replacement team to represent the Pac-12. They are contractually obligated to take the highest-ranked Pac-12 team in the CFP Rankings, which will be a contest between Colorado and USC, who sits at No. 11.

It makes the Trojans big fans of Washington, but this is a committee of humans deciding the fate of the world here.

And there being three places between USC and Colorado is troubling on the surface, especially when looking at the history of the committee in the previous two years of the CFP.

Of the eight teams to lose a conference championship game, five either did not fall in the final rankings or dropped just one spot.

Though of course, context matters.

For instance, 2014 Missouri didn’t drop despite losing 42-13 to No. 1 Alabama, while 2015 North Carolina didn’t drop after playing No. 1 Clemson down to the wire, 45-37.

Then there’s 2015 Florida, who fell one place after losing by 14 to No. 2, while 2014 Georgia Tech also dropped by one, following a two-point loss to the No. 4 team.

None of those four teams were in the playoff discussion going into the week, and they all finished no higher than 10th, while starting no higher than 10th.

This year is an entirely different beast. None of the top three teams in the country will be challenged with an opponent in the Top 14, while the rest of the Top 10 besides No. 5 Michigan will play each other.

A shakeup is inevitable.

Here’s how Football Study Hall’s S&P+ score projections see this week’s key games playing out, along with win probabilities:

No. 4 Washington (65%) over No. 8 Colorado 31.3-24.8
No. 6 Wisconsin (51%) over No. 7 Penn State 24.5-24.2
No. 9 Oklahoma (70% over No. 10 Oklahoma State 40.5-31.6

Again. Prepare for a massive shakeup. USC, who has been the highest-ranked three-loss team for the last two weeks after being Washington, could potentially be joined by a trio of conference losers.

Not in the two-year history of the playoff format have we seen a week like this. Having said that, the 2014 season bares slight resemblance to 2016.

Oct 8, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; USC Trojans wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster (9) is pursued by Colorado Buffaloes defensive back Ahkello Witherspoon (23) in the fourth quarter during a NCAA football game at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. USC defeated Colorado 21-17. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports /

While Colorado ranks No. 8 this year, Arizona sat at No. 7 going into its Pac-12 Championship Game two years ago. Both teams had a 10-2 record after the regular season, with only an outside lane scenario for making the playoff, needing a win over an 11-1 team already in position to make the playoff –then Oregon, now Washington.

In regular season play within the Big 12, No. 6 Baylor faced 9th-ranked Kansas State, with records of 10-1 and 9-2, respectively. This year, it’s No. 9 Oklahoma and No. 10 Oklahoma State in a de-facto regular season Big 12 championship game, with both teams sitting at 9-2.

Arizona lost big in a 51-13 rout to Oregon, while Baylor ousted Kansas State 38-27. As a result, the Bears moved up a spot to No. 5, Arizona dropped three places to 10th, and K-State dropped two down to No. 11.

With that in mind and given this year’s games –along with the committee’s built-in criteria of heavily considering conference champions– it’s safe assume that Colorado’s place at No. 8 is temporary if they lose.

If you’re ranking USC and Colorado without the context of conference standings, the Trojans simply have the better resume.

The 10-2 winner of the Big 12 –either Oklahoma or Oklahoma State– would rise above a 10-3 non-champion Buffaloes team. Meanwhile, 9-3 non-champion OU or OK State would fall a few places from No. 10, allowing idle USC to rise at least one place in the rankings.

You then essentially are confronted with the 10-3 Colorado vs. 9-3 USC conundrum.

It’s all conjecture at this point and it depends how you see the teams.

If you’re ranking USC and Colorado on their 12 and 13 games respectively, without the context of conference standings, the Trojans simply have the better resume. They won the head-to-head matchup and have two Top 10 wins, including a road win over the same Washington whom the Buffaloes will have lost to.

Though if you’re ranking the teams while taking the Pac-12 championship game into play, Colorado could have an edge simply because they played an extra game that USC didn’t have the chance of losing.

The bottom line is that should Washington win the Pac-12 and make the playoff, Colorado’s current ranking three places ahead of USC in the College Football Playoff Rankings is not an outright disqualifier for the Trojans’ Rose Bowl chances.

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In 2014, both Mississippi State and Ole Miss surged three places in the final rankings –from 10th to 7th, and 12th to 9th, respectively– despite not playing a game.

And Mississippi State’s is worth noting, as the Bulldogs’ jump including a leap over also-idle and same-record Michigan State, to set precedence for final-week hurdles not being tied to only teams who played a game, and subsequently added to their resume.

Should USC find itself in the Rose Bowl, it would likely be the result of a similar hurdle.

If chalk wins out this week, here’s how the final CFP Rankings could project with the simplest logic, when you take into account conference champions, head to head results and overall resumes:

Alabama 13-0
Clemson 12-1
Washington 12-1
Ohio State 11-1
Wisconsin 11-2
Oklahoma 10-2
Michigan 10-2
USC 9-3
Penn State 10-3
Colorado 10-3

Simply put, Ohio State falls to No. 4 without being the Big Ten Champion but ahead of Wisconsin because of a head-to-head victory, Oklahoma becomes the second-ranked two-loss champion and USC holds serve as the top three-loss team.

The Rose Bowl would then be a rematch of both the classic 1963 Rose Bowl and last year’s dreadful Holiday Bowl, between the Trojans and Wisconsin Badgers.

That’s if it breaks their way.

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