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In last year’s preseason AP Poll, the USC Trojans were ranked No. 1 overall. By November, they found themselves unranked and at one point had fewer total votes than five other California schools, including all three Cal State schools playing at the FBS level.

Naturally, they were labeled as ‘overrated’, with some calling the 2012 Trojans the worst preseason No. 1 ever.

All things considered, it’s hard to argue against that. They had sky-high expectations and fell flat on their face during the second half of the year and never lived up to their preseason marks.

But according to STASSEN.com, the ‘overrated’ trend isn’t exactly new to USC. Dating back to 1989, they’ve determined that only Oklahoma has a worse cumulative “overratedness”.

By taking the yearly plus-minus differential of the consensus of preseason polls and the consensus of final polls, STASSEN is able to create a number that determines how a team has lived up to preseason rankings, thus allowing for “overratedness” and “underratedness” to exist.

For example, a team that was ranked No. 2 in the preseason and No. 5 in the final poll would earn a score of negative-3 for that year. Add these numbers up each year since 1989, and a trend can be formed with a cumulative count.

As of now, USC scores a -97, just ahead of Oklahoma at -97.5. As for the opposite end of the spectrum, teams like Oregon(+80), Boise State(+79) and Kansas State(53) have shown the greatest ability to out-perform their preseason rankings.

Despite registering a plus-17 mark in 2011, the Trojans scored a negative-25 in 2012, topping 2009 and 1996, in which they concluded the season ranked 18 spots lower than they started in the preseason.

What’s it really mean? Well, on the surface is means that USC and Oklahoma have a knack for letting down pollsters. But the reality is that the data says more about the ideology of polling in college football and the fatal flaws of the preseason poll in general.

The teams at the bottom of the cumulative score include major powers USC, Oklahoma, Texas, Florida State, Nebraska, Michigan and Notre Dame. Minus the absence of Alabama, that list reads like a Family Fued board of the most popular college football teams.

Not only have all of those schools won a national championship since 1997, they’re the schools that are typically given the benefit of the doubt in preseason polls based on how good they’ve been on a long term basis, which in turn makes them far more likely to underachieve than overachieve, given the annual lofty expectations put on them.

Inversely, teams like Oregon, Boise State and Kansas State are considered to have the most “underratedness” due to the fact that they are continuously getting more production from less talent. That variance in talent level gives them the perception of being hard to gauge, which typically winds up in lesser expectations that are more capable of being surpassed.

With STASSEN’s data, and taking into account both a bit of Ewing Theory and elitism, the continuous differential of preseason rankings goes far in showing just how inaccurate preseason polls are, as predictors and evaluators of the past, future and present.

Just because USC and Oklahoma have historically had the worst differential over the last 24 years doesn’t mean that they’re truly overrated programs in relation to Boise State. It means that the rationale of preseason polls are incredibly flawed, as is the notion that they hold some sort of weight in gauging a good team from a bad team.

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Athlon Sports released their list of the Top 50 running backs of the BCS era today, and actually took it as far as ranking them up to the Top 100. Two USC Trojans made the cut, with Reggie Bush coming in at No. 6, and LenDale White getting the nod at No. 40.

Bush as the sixth back is an interesting selection for Athlon, as he’s listed one spot behind a top five of Adrian Peterson, Ricky Williams, Ron Dayne, Darren McFadden and LaDainian Tomlinson.

On the surface, those four backs all put up better career totals than Bush, who finished with 3,169 rushing yards and 25 touchdowns, good for seventh all-time on the USC list, before having his final 15 games wiped from his record as part of NCAA sanctions. They were also four-down backs and prototypical halfbacks and tailbacks, while Bush was a different breed of back.

That doesn’t mean, however, that they all had bigger impacts on the game, as Bush–outside of maybe Barry Sanders– was arguably the most explosive and talented player to ever play at the college level. His 2005 season has become a nearly unattainable benchmark for future backs of his caliber, as Bush ran for 1,740 yard on just 200 carries while splitting time at running back with LenDale White, and flashing highlight reel runs left and right.

Is that enough to put Bush ahead of the record holders for career yardage(Dayne) and single game yardage(Tomlinson)? The argument definitely carries weight, as Bush on his best day at USC was far superior to Dayne, and Tomlinson put up his gaudy numbers against mid-major defenses while at TCU.

As for LenDale White, while his No. 40 ranking may seem low at first thought, when you look at the backs ahead of him, like Shaun Alexander and Steve Slaton, it’s hard to imagine who would be worth of dropping in favor of White.

All in all, the list is a nostalgic way to remember the great and unsung careers of guys who never made it big in the NFL, like Michigan’s trio of Mike Hart, Chris Perry and Anthony Thomas.

Other Pac-10/12 players to crack the Top 50:
15. LaMichael James, Oregon
18. Toby Gerhart, Stanford
26. Marshawn Lynch, Cal
29. JaQuizz Rodgers, Oregon State
30. Ken Simonton, Oregon State
31. Maurice Jones-Drew, UCLA
38. Stepfan Taylor, Stanford
46. J.J. Arrington, Cal

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Super Sophomore 2015 DL Rasheem Green at a loss for words at USC offer

Coach Ed Orgeron and Coach Tee Martin were quite busy in line at Junipero Serra High School in Gardena, CA on Monday, as Super Sophomore 2015 DL Rasheem Green recieved a whopping four offers. Yes folks: that is four offers in ONE day. Green was offered by USC, Washington, Florida and Cal. Add the UCLA offer from a few weeks ago, that brings Green’s count to five offers.

“Im just at a loss for words”, said Green, “This is like a dream come true. I got offered by UCLA a few weeks ago, and now I am offered by USC. USC coaches told me that they would love to have me there. This means so much for me because both are schools close to home. My parents and family could come see me a lot.”

 

At 6’5″, 260lbs Green posesses explosion at his size, and can move fast on the field. Green grew up playing basketball and learned about proper footwork. The transition from basketball to football was natural at the lineman position. He uses his size, hands and feet to throw opponents off balance, and defeat blocks.

“Rasheem Green is a dominant defensive lineman who plays with great leverage against the run”, said Coach Joshua Dabbs, the Serra High School Defensive Coordinator, “He can defeat any type of block. He has a long frame and is extremely fast and athletic. The sky is the limit with those skill sets”.

Green’s performance at the Nike SPARQ combine a few weeks ago garnered a tweet from the organizers, Torrance, CA based Student Sports: “RASHEEM GREEN BLEW THE DOORS OPEN!”. This translated into a great testing day and camp performance, which gained him a world of attention. A virtual unknown, he catapulted to the top percentile of the over 1,500 attendees.

The 2012 Division II State Champions Serra High School saw the full scope of Green’s capabilities towards the end of last season. Green reports that he had 2 sacks and 28 tackles. “It meant the world to me to be able to play and play in a championship team. I won a Division II State Championship as a Sophomore. That is something most guys dont get to do in their whole 4 years, but I did it as a Sophomore. It was truly special. I look forward to repeating it next year”.