USC Football Mailbag: Potential Award Winners? (6/21)

What national awards could be on the Trojans’ radar? Is Notre Dame that much of a threat? RoT’s USC Football mailbag is after the answers.

This week’s USC Football mailbag takes on the Trojan wide receiver picture, national award speculation, Notre Dame’s bounce back expectations and potential Plan Bs for recruiting quarterbacks.

Is it a good thing to have no clear No. 1 receiver? Is Notre Dame really a threat? Where should USC turn after Matt Corral’s de-commitment?

Those are the questions. These are the answers…

Q: What QB would you pursue hardest if you were Clay Helton? — @HumeDisciple

A: The simple answer is Justin Fields, the five star-dual threat quarterback from Kennesaw, Georgia.

The trouble with that is USC would be entering the race to land Fields well behind all of his other suitors. The chances of landing Fields is very low.

A more attainable target is Centennial’s Tanner McKee. The five-star pro-style passer is local, uncommitted and would be a fine addition to USC’s 2018 class. The only problem? McKee is Mormon and plans to take his mission, delaying his college arrival by two years. Considering the Trojans’ numbers at quarterback, the delay is probably a deal-breaker.

CHECK OUT: How Will USC Replace Matt Corral

That probably helps explain why USC offered Utah-commit Jack Tuttle almost as soon as news of Matt Corral’s de-commitment broke. Tuttle is a four-star pro-style quarterback from Mission Hills. If the Trojans can flip him, the QB situation will have turned out okay.

Q: I don’t see a 1000 yard WR this year, may 3-4 in 6/700 yard range. That’s not normal for USC, but isn’t that a good thing? — @zuhayrsdad

A: It’s not necessarily a good thing, but it’s not a bad thing either.

Deontay Burnett or Michael Pittman could eclipse 1,000 yards when all is said and done, but the fact that there’s debate about who USC’s top receiver will be says two things:

1. The Trojans have a lot of equally exciting talent who could rise to the top.

2. The Trojans don’t have a sure-thing at receiver.

Both of those statements are true at this moment. What USC will hope is that at least one of those talents becomes the sure-thing.

MORE: 5 Lingering Questions From Spring Camp

At the very least, USC has a quarterback capable and willing to spread the ball around. That’ll go a long way towards making sure the passing game is a success.

Q: Why are people predicting we will lose the ND game? — @CrashAntilles

A: USC will be considered the favorite in every game on the schedule going into the 2017 season. So it’s not so much that people are predicting the Trojans will lose to Notre Dame, but that USC is likely to lose at some point and the Irish are a good candidate to do it.

There are several factors that support that conclusion. For one, it’s a rivalry game, so anything can happen. It’s in South Bend, giving the Irish an advantage.

The game is also the eighth game on a slate which does not feature a bye week. The Trojans could be pretty beat up by October 21, especially coming off a physical matchup with Utah the week before.

SEE MORE: Ranking USC’s 2017 Schedule By Threat Level

Then consider that Notre Dame is expected to be much improved after a disappointing 4-8 season in 2016. The Irish have a talented roster, too talented to miss out on bowl eligibility unless Brian Kelly has truly lost the team (and no one is willing to go that far out on the limb and claim that he has). They have a veteran offensive line, exciting receivers and a quarterback in Brandon Wimbush with high expectations.

Statistics back that all up. Bill Connelly’s S&P+ projections give Notre Dame a 39 percent chance to topple the Trojans — that’s the highest percentage for any team on USC’s schedule. The Irish are projected to rank No. 17 in that statistical measure this season, making them a formidable opponent on paper.

Q: In 2017, more likely, a Butkus Award winner or a Thorpe Award winner? More likely a Doak Walker winner or a John Mackey winner? — @dgeske

A: First, we have to look at USC candidates for each of those awards.

First, you have linebacker Cameron Smith for the Butkus Award versus cornerback Iman Marshall for the Thorpe Award.

On the one hand, Marshall has the higher ceiling and will be competing for a more “winnable” award. A wide variety of linebackers will compete for the Butkus Award, making it particularly tough to stand out at that position.

On the other hand, Smith is more of a sure-thing at linebacker. He might not have Marshall’s ceiling, but he’s more likely to perform at a high level consistently through the season. He’ll almost certainly be on the Butkus Award watch list and already has national clout behind his name.

TRENDING: 5 Most Irreplaceable Trojans in 2017

The tie-breaker, in the end, has to be flash. Smith’s style might not command enough stats or eyeballs to win an award like the Butkus. Marshall is capable of putting up big numbers and will have opportunities to showcase his abilities on the national stage. That gives him the edge.

More from Reign of Troy

• Markese Stepp enters transfer portal intending to leave USC football
• USC football’s Alijah Vera-Tucker declares for NFL Draft
• USC football adds Xavion Alford as transfer from Texas
• USC Podcast: RoT Radio Ep. 396 on the Football Season’s Fallout
• Talanoa Hufanga named Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year, USC football with five first-teamers

The Doak Walker Award and John Mackey Award debate follows similar arguments.

Assuming Ronald Jones II and Daniel Imatorbhebhe are the Trojan candidates for those awards, siding with the later comes down to “winnability.”

Jones II is a special player, but his competition at running back will be as stiff as they come with the likes of Saquan Barkley, Derrius Guice, Myles Gaskin and more vying for the prize.

Imatorbhebhe would have his obstacles to putting up the kind of numbers he’d need in order to win the Mackey Award, namely splitting touches with Tyler Petite and a crowded wide receiving corps. However, the external competition would be far less than Jones.

When it comes down to it, this exercise shows that while USC has potential award winners, it’s very difficult to actually win a national award. When Adoree’ Jackson won the Thorpe Award and Sam Darnold took home the Archie Griffin Award in 2016, they were the first Trojans to win a national award since Marqise Lee in 2012.

Q: Will people ever stop tweeting recruits?! — @Dar_Gar

A: No, but it would be really great if they would.